Yet in new Europe,
countries are queuing up to
join. On 1 January, Slovenia,
the tiny former Yugoslavian
state just across the Alps
from Italy, will become the
13th member. Cyprus and Malta,
both former British colonies,
plan to follow a year later.
While the accession
countries are scrambling to
get their economies in order
and qualify to join, some
politicians in Italy are
beginning to think the
unthinkable, and advocate
crashing out of the single
currency to reverse the
dramatic deterioration in the
economy's competitiveness
since 1999. Analysts at
think-tank the Centre for
European Reform warned
recently that without radical
market reforms, the eurozone
could be torn apart. And a
run-in between the French
government and the European
Central Bank last week
underlined growing anger that
the ECB is mimicking the
hawkish Bundesbank, depressing
growth by keeping interest
rates too high.
Whatever the tensions among
the 12 existing members,
Europe's newest countries see
euro membership as an economic
and political badge of honour.
Slovenia was the only country
to meet the criteria this
year. Latvia and Lithuania
failed to make the cut, and a
number of other countries have
had to concede that high
budget deficits or runaway
inflation will prevent them
from joining for some years to
come.
'We are very proud that we
did make it, there is no doubt
about that,' says Slovenia's
charismatic finance minister,
Andrej Bajuk. 'I honestly
believe that the effect of
opening up and identifying
Slovenia as an EU member that
is following the rules in the
mainstream is going to be an
advantage.'
Mitja Gaspari, governor of
Slovenia's central bank,
acknowledges the patchy record
of some members since the
euro's launch in 1999, but
insists that his country will
still be a winner. 'Among the
euro members there are
different examples, good and
bad,' he says. 'If we are
successful, we can join some
countries which have benefited
quite a lot, and hopefully we
wouldn't repeat the mistakes
made in some other countries.'
Launching the euro is a
huge logistical challenge:
Slovenes will be allowed just
a fortnight in which they can
still use their existing
currency, the tolar, before it
becomes extinct. Already every
retailer, from top-notch
department stores to roast
chestnut sellers in the
capital, Ljubljana, have to
display their prices in both
tolar and euro. Awkwardly, the
euro is worth 239.64 tolars ,
but the central bank is
issuing every household with a
small calculator to help them
cope.
Slovenia is an economic
success story among the
accession countries: it has
managed to chalk up steady
growth of about 4 per cent a
year while striking strict,
economy-wide wage deals with
what the government calls its
'social partners', which have
helped to squeeze inflation
from more than 10 per cent a
decade ago to 2.3 per cent
today. There is broad
agreement that joining is the
right thing to do.
As well as putting his tiny
country on the map, Bajuk
hopes that cutting out
exchange-rate variations
against the euro will help to
boost trade. 'In an open
economy like Slovenia, you are
eliminating the biggest
uncertainty: when you
eliminate exchange rate
uncertainty, you are doing a
very important job.'
However, recent research
has suggested that for old
Europe at least, any boost to
trade since 1999, when
eurozone exchange rates were
fixed, has come because of
dismantling trade barriers,
not cutting out currency
wobbles.
Moreover - contrary to the
hopes of the euro's founding
fathers - instead of
increasing the incentive for
member countries to carry out
pro-growth reforms, the pace
of change actually seems to
have slowed. The Stability and
Growth Pact - meant to keep
tight control over profligate
governments - has effectively
been suspended, as it was
broken year after year. Big
spenders such as Italy and
Portugal are able to hide
behind common eurozone
interest rates, instead of
being punished by the markets
for piling up public-sector
debt. (Note however that just
two more downgrades from the
ratings agencies would leave
Italian government debt too
risky to be accepted as
collateral by the ECB, and
expose that government to
soaring interest rates.)
Without the option of a
devaluation to restore their
competitiveness, Italy,
Portugal and Spain are losing
out to Germany, where
companies have used the threat
of whisking production off to
Poland to impose wage cuts in
real terms and win market
share from their European
rivals.
For the east European
countries, which are playing
economic catch-up, there is a
question mark over whether
sticking to the strict deficit
ceilings of the Maastricht
treaty - and living with the
same interest rate as the
slower- growing mature
economies of the west - is the
right recipe for growth.
Slovenia is not pressing
for looser rules for new
members of the euro club.
'This issue was discussed in
Ecofin [the gathering of
European finance ministers] in
the last few months,' said
Bajuk. 'We asked; the answer
was no, and we didn't waste
any time in prolonging the
discussion.'
And he is confident that,
unlike in Italy, continuing
reform will help Slovenian
firms to remain competitive.
'The productive sector of
the Slovenian economy, for
decades, was used to a central
bank that would clean up the
mess after them with
devaluations. As soon as we
entered the exchange rate
mechanism, they didn't waste
any time in trying to get
changes in monetary policy -
they took it seriously.
Instead of complaining, they
started adjusting. The trade
unions accepted an agreement
in which wages were increasing
by 1 percentage point less
than productivity: everybody
accepted, "This is it: let's
do it".'
It remains to be seen how
long workers will be willing
to make such sacrifices, and
how strong the pressure will
be for Ljubljana to keep up
the pace of reform, once it
has the seal of approval from
the Frankfurt-based ECB. But
for Bajuk, a child of the
Second World War, any
scepticism about the economic
tensions within the single
currency is outweighed by the
political symbolism of joining
the euro club.
'I was born in 1943, when
in Europe nobody had time for
a union, or a joint effort, or
respect for our national
differences. Of course there
are tensions - but they are
being solved by talking.
Instead of spending money on
cannons, we spend a lot of
hours talking about how to
find solutions. It's
different, but believe me it's
much easier than in the time
of our parents and
grandparents.'