Hurricane Paul weakened to a tropical storm today as it continued on a path toward Mexico's northwestern coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Paul's maximum sustained winds dropped to 65 miles (100 kilometers) an hour as of 8 a.m. Los Angeles time, from 80 mph three hours before, according to the hurricane center's latest advisory. Forecasts show the storm passing near the Baja California Peninsula tomorrow evening and weakening to a tropical depression, with sustained winds below 39 mph, as it goes by. ``The alternative scenario is that it falls apart before it gets there,'' said Richard Pasch, a hurricane specialist at the hurricane center in Miami. ``There's a little bit of uncertainty there. We're backing off, but we haven't completely pulled the plug. We're looking for more solid evidence.''

A U.S. Air Force aircraft, known as a hurricane hunter, was scheduled to fly into the storm later today to collect more data, and some watches and warnings could be lifted if it confirms a weakening trend, Pasch said. Mexican authorities downgraded a hurricane watch issued for the Baja California Sur state to a tropical storm warning earlier today, meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected within the next day. A tropical storm watch is in place for the west coast of the Mexican mainland from Mazatlan to Altata in Sinaloa state, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.

`Might Not Be a Problem'

``There are indications that this thing might not be a problem at all, but we can't be sure of that yet,'' Pasch said in a telephone interview. Paul's center was about 310 miles (495 kilometers) south- southwest of the resort of Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula as of about 8 a.m. Los Angeles time, the center said in an online advisory. Paul was moving toward the north at about 7 mph, and was forecast to turn to the northeast during the next day.

Paul, the ninth hurricane of the Pacific season, is heading toward the same areas as Hurricanes Lane and John, which pummeled Mexico's western coast and Baja peninsula last month. Lane caused at least two deaths, spurred the evacuation of thousands and left thousands more without power on the northwestern mainland. John pounded the resort area around Cabo San Lucas.