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Using Indices to Help Decide on an Overseas Purchase

By Diarmaid Condon www.diarmaidcondon.com

 

 

When you are in the early stages of researching property overseas it can often be difficult to pinpoint where exactly you should start. Agents will make virtually every destination look incredibly good to it is necessary to employ some sort of a filtering system to enable you to decide which countries are in fact likely to suit your investment priorities and those which are not.

 

One of the first ports of call if you’ve absolutely no idea where you may like to purchase is to browse some indices. There are a number of them about and they will give you a feeling for what a country may be like in terms of the safety of your money, your property and even yourself.

 

The three I will address here are the Index of Economic Freedom, the Knight Frank Global House Price Index and the Jones Lang LaSalle Real Estate Freedom Index. All three can be used to help with decisions as to what countries you should consider for your investment and which should possibly be avoided.  

 

For over a decade now The Wall Street Journal and The Heritage Foundation, Washington’s pre-eminent think tank, have tracked the march of economic freedom around the world with its influential Index of Economic Freedom. The Index covers ten freedoms – from property rights to entrepreneurship – in 161 countries. For the first time, the 2007 edition also analyzes regions to showcase the freest economies in every part of the world.

 

The top seven ranked countries, all scoring in excess of 80% and considered ‘free’, are Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, the US, New Zealand, the UK and Ireland. The index maintains; ‘Ireland has high levels of business freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom, monetary freedom, property rights, and freedom from corruption.’ These top seven have come ahead of such luminaries as Luxembourg, Switzerland, Canada, Belgium, Germany and Spain who are all classed as ‘mostly free’.

 

A quick look down the index will show, for instance, that Montenegro, a country which has been extremely popular with Irish buyers in recent years, actually fails to receive a rating. The site says; “Most of the economic freedom of Serbia and Montenegro cannot be graded because of the violence and political turmoil that the country has endured in recent years. The last time Serbia and Montenegro was wholly graded was in 2003, when it received a score of 39.5 percent. (this would in any case place it very near the bottom of the index, between Burma and Turkmenistan). This is particularly interesting as neighbouring Albania has managed a ranking of 61.4% which puts it in a quite respectable 66th place, rated by the index as ‘moderately free’. Croatia, on the other hand, has only managed to make it to 109th position which rates it as ‘mostly unfree’.

 

The Jones Lang LaSalle Real Estate Transparency Index (RETI) is based purely on real estate transactions, predominantly commercial. Similar conclusions can be drawn for residential transactions. The latest report, which is published biennially, says that; “Transparency is improving across the globe. Ten countries have now achieved our highest ‘Tier 1’ Transparency level, up from six in 2004. The new ‘highly transparent’ countries are Hong Kong, France, Sweden and Singapore.” Australia and the US hold joint first place followed by New Zealand, Canada and the UK. Ireland is considered to be a tier two location, ranked in 15th position. Probably more interesting to Irish investors are the countries propping up the end of the table. At tier five, the lowest level, you will find Egypt, Venezuela and Vietnam. Others who don’t fare so well are Panama, Turkey and the UAE, although the latter pair have been deemed to have shown ‘significant improvements in transparency’ since the last index was published in 2004.

 

The Knight Frank Global House Index tracks average quarterly house prices across a

comprehensive list of countries around the world. This index is based on an assessment of price changes in the broad mainstream housing markets of the countries covered. The most recent report, issued on March 20th last, says; ‘There are two noticeable trends at work across global housing markets: Firstly, price growth is slowly but surely beginning to decline in most locations globally. The impact of lower interest rates has led to sharply higher prices across Europe, Asia and the Americas. This upward trend in asset prices is moving to a close as interest rates either remain level or begin to rise. Secondly the emerging economies are still dominating the top of the growth table - with the recent EU accession states being classic examples. Growth in prices here reflects wider mortgage market reform and rising wealth in expanding economies.’

 

Latvia has posted the largest gains with a staggering 66.6% increase in prices, although it does specify that this is in Riga alone. It is followed by Poland with 33%, Denmark with 22%, Norway with 16.4%, Lithuania (Vilnius) at 13.3%, South Africa with 13% and Ireland with 12%. Japan and Germany are once again the laggards in the table posting losses of 1.6% and 3.2% respectively.

 

Liam Bailey, Head of Knight Frank Residential Research, comments; “The next issue to consider is where next for prices? Too many people look to invest in the top growth location, assuming that high growth will continue. It might be a more interesting and perhaps rewarding strategy to look at the bottom of the table and think which of these countries will see the next upturn.” He continues; “For various reasons Germany has under-performed as a nation in housing market terms for a decade. We think investors could do well to look behind the headline figure and look more closely at some of the German sub-markets.”

 

All the information in such indices is averaged by its very nature and as such you can find considerable variations within specific countries. Such information will, however, help guide you as to which countries might prove less risky than others if you are not in a position to handle a lot of risk. On the other hand, if you are a high risk investor, they can be used to guide you toward countries which are likely to have a strong claim for high capital appreciation down the line.

 

Resources:

 

Index of Economic Freedom - http://www.heritage.org/research/features/index/countries.cfm

 

The Jones Lang LaSalle Real Estate Transparency Index (RETI) - http://www.joneslanglasalle.com/en-GB/research/researchabstract?artid=2489

 

The Knight Frank Global House Index -www.knightfrank.com/ResearchReportDirPhase2/11058.pdf



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